How are new developers going to survive in such a tight market?
going below the dev replacement rate
We’ve all seen it
Layoffs. They have been happening everywhere, and they are not stopping. Google recently laid off its entire Python workforce for “cheaper labor.” Companies face more restrictive tax laws, adding more resistance to hiring software engineers. Hiring developers is becoming more of a gamble as they are expensive and inherently risky employees to have.
There are five dynamics to these layoffs.
Dynamic 1 - Hiring Spree
COVID happened, and suddenly, everyone was working from home. Demand for online work increased, and Big Tech went on a hiring rampage. It was an employee’s market; job openings increased, and people were flexing multiple job offers at once from top tech companies.
Dynamic 2 - Hype
Now, we have all the ‘tech’ job hype, with day-in-the-life videos flooding social media platforms highlighting how amazing it is to work in tech. These are far from the average developer life, maybe at big tech sometimes. Since a giant hiring spree took place, becoming a developer was suddenly cool and luxurious.
Dynamic 3 - The opposite of gate-keeping
As more people boarded the hype train, it made it that much more worth it to convince people to buy into boot camps and courses that gave false promises to land that dream FAANG job. Tech influencers spawned, and many made getting a career in the industry seem easy.
Dynamic 4 - Supply and Demand
It used to be that software developers were so sought after that Big Tech intentionally hoarded them from their competition. But now we have a surplus of talent. Talent at huge and notable companies is laid off and back in the job market with boot camp grads and college computer science grads. Now, experienced developers from the most in-demand employers compete in the market, along with new grads with no experience. It is now a talent market in favor of the employer.
Dynamic 5 - Section 174
Not many know about the change to Section 174, but I recommend reading about it in a post written by
. Long story short, in terms of taxes, it is more expensive to retain software engineers.The new devs
I am truly worried about the new developer generation trying to enter the market. Companies are looking for guarantees; why hire a developer with 0 years of experience when there are seniors with five years who will hit the ground running? As a society, we should be training and mentoring new developers, but for most companies, developer output comes first, not training people.